Chapter 14, the movement sideways, toward commodity

The test. By 31 December 2028, three or more suppliers crossing the capability thresholds while transformer lead times fall below a year and credit spreads converge.

open Open.

From The AI Compute Race. Read the book

Falls due

31 August 2029

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A plurality of the capability clock’s voting rows for commodity infrastructure, whose limbs ask for three or more suppliers. The transformer lead time (row 15) under 52 weeks. Oracle’s credit protection (row 25) under 100 basis points.

Chapter

Chapter 14 — The Convergence

One campus, Meta’s Hyperion, run through four possible futures to show how science, power, money and permission meet in the price of an accelerator-hour.

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@misc{dryburgh-chapter-14-the-movement-sideways-toward--2026,
  author = {Dryburgh, Lee S.},
  title = {{Chapter 14, the movement sideways, toward commodity}},
  howpublished = {In \emph{The AI Compute Race}, DRYBURGH},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://dryburgh.com/vol1/tests/2029-10},
  note = {Accessed 2026-11-01}
}