The test. Withdrawn if an unsealed filing shows the early-termination fee tracking the revised rather than the original estimate, and unscored if no such filing is unsealed by that day. The claim stands, with the gap wider, if the monitors show the estimate risen again above $4.421 billion and no filing has shown the fee tracking it; with no filing unsealed and the estimate risen, the fee limb is unscored and the gap limb stands.
a mixed or partial reading The estimate had risen from the docket’s original $3.956 billion to $4.421 billion by 15 May 2026, up about 11.8 percent, so the gap limb stands wider and the fee limb is open.
From The AI Compute Race. Read the book
- Falls due
- Read on
- Unsealed filings, and the U-37425 quarterly monitors
- Chapter
- Chapter 6 — Firm, Around-the-Clock
Where the electricity comes from: grid queues, transformers, turbines and the firm power a datacenter needs every hour of the year, on calendars the buildout does not control.
Filings that bear on it
- Louisiana Public Service Commission, Order in Docket U-37425, 29 August 2025
Louisiana’s utility commission approved a settlement letting Entergy Louisiana build three combined-cycle generators and transmission for Meta’s Richland Parish data center, with conditions on the customer’s minimum monthly charges, parent guaranty and early termination fee, and quarterly progress reports.
- Louisiana Public Service Commission, transcript of the Business and Executive Session of 20 August 2025, Plaquemine, Commissioners Davante Lewis and Jean-Paul Coussan questioning the Staff’s consultant Lane Sisung
At Louisiana’s commission on 20 August 2025, the staff’s consultant said Meta’s termination fee repays the generators’ originally projected cost, so after an overrun there “may be a little bit of gap” while the plants pass to ratepayers.
- Edward Burgess, Direct testimony and exhibits on behalf of Alliance for Affordable Energy and Union of Concerned Scientists, LPSC Docket U-37882, 31 July 2026
Testimony for two advocacy groups on Entergy Louisiana’s seven new generators for a second Meta data center in Richland Parish reports that the first project’s generation and transmission estimate rose $465 million, about 11.7 percent, to $4.421 billion.
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How to cite this page
Dryburgh, Lee S. “Chapter 6, the overrun gap.” In The AI Compute Race. DRYBURGH. https://dryburgh.com/vol1/tests/2028-11 (accessed 2026-11-01).
BibTeX
@misc{dryburgh-chapter-6-the-overrun-gap-2026,
author = {Dryburgh, Lee S.},
title = {{Chapter 6, the overrun gap}},
howpublished = {In \emph{The AI Compute Race}, DRYBURGH},
year = {2026},
url = {https://dryburgh.com/vol1/tests/2028-11},
note = {Accessed 2026-11-01}
}