The test. No change by Washington, in either direction, to which NVIDIA accelerators may be licensed for China or on what terms, between the H200 rule of January 2026 and 31 December 2027, weakens the claim, which rests in part on Washington’s reversals of 2025. A further reversal by Washington in that time, while Beijing’s guidance holds, confirms it.
open Open.
From The AI Compute Race. Read the book
- Falls due
- Read on
- The Federal Register and NVIDIA’s filings
- Chapter
- Chapter 7 — The Double Blockade
Two governments deciding one trade: Washington’s export rules and Beijing’s instructions at the border, and what each did to the chip business it meant to shape.
What it names
- Party NVIDIA
Filings that bear on it
- NVIDIA Corporation, Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 25 January 2026, filed 25 February 2026
NVIDIA’s annual report for fiscal 2026 shows a $4.5 billion charge on the H20 after its China exports came to need licenses, about $60 million of licensed H20 revenue, and none yet from a February 2026 H200 license.
- NVIDIA, Form 8-K, 15 April 2025
The U.S. government told NVIDIA on 9 April 2025 that exporting its H20 chips to China required a license and on 14 April that this would last indefinitely, and NVIDIA expected up to about $5.5 billion of charges.
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How to cite this page
Dryburgh, Lee S. “Chapter 7, the harder to reverse, Washington’s side.” In The AI Compute Race. DRYBURGH. https://dryburgh.com/vol1/tests/2027-18 (accessed 2026-11-01).
BibTeX
@misc{dryburgh-chapter-7-the-harder-to-reverse-washingt-2026,
author = {Dryburgh, Lee S.},
title = {{Chapter 7, the harder to reverse, Washington's side}},
howpublished = {In \emph{The AI Compute Race}, DRYBURGH},
year = {2026},
url = {https://dryburgh.com/vol1/tests/2027-18},
note = {Accessed 2026-11-01}
}