Chapter 7, the harder to reverse, Beijing’s side

The test. Beijing’s guidance lifting, with mainland deliveries of licensed H200s or their successors in the calendar year to 31 December 2027 exceeding half of what Washington has licensed to Chinese buyers by that day, withdraws the claim. Both are needed to withdraw it, and either alone weakens it. The threshold is set against what Washington has licensed, so that Washington’s own ceiling cannot be what keeps it from being met.

held Held so far. By August about 10,000 licensed chips each had reached ByteDance and Tencent against the 100,000 each Washington had cleared, a tenth, under the half the test asks for; NVIDIA said the shipments that had reached China were under one percent of its datacenter revenue in the quarter then reported.

From The AI Compute Race. Read the book

Falls due

31 December 2027

Read on

NVIDIA’s filings or the press reports the chapter reads

Chapter

Chapter 7 — The Double Blockade

Two governments deciding one trade: Washington’s export rules and Beijing’s instructions at the border, and what each did to the chip business it meant to shape.

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@misc{dryburgh-chapter-7-the-harder-to-reverse-beijing--2026,
  author = {Dryburgh, Lee S.},
  title = {{Chapter 7, the harder to reverse, Beijing's side}},
  howpublished = {In \emph{The AI Compute Race}, DRYBURGH},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://dryburgh.com/vol1/tests/2027-17},
  note = {Accessed 2026-11-01}
}