Chapters 1 and 12, the strong form

The test. Confirmed only if public evidence shows all three of its conditions, that one model generation does most of the research for the next, that the cycle materially shortens and that the resulting advantage converts into a capability rivals cannot effectively counter. Each condition alone weakens nothing and confirms nothing.

a mixed or partial reading No public evidence yet supports it.

From The AI Compute Race. Read the book

Falls due

31 August 2028

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Public evidence, verified for the Scorecard by its audited milestone for the automated researcher

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@misc{dryburgh-chapters-1-and-12-the-strong-form-2026,
  author = {Dryburgh, Lee S.},
  title = {{Chapters 1 and 12, the strong form}},
  howpublished = {In \emph{The AI Compute Race}, DRYBURGH},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://dryburgh.com/vol1/tests/2028-4},
  note = {Accessed 2026-11-01}
}