Chapter 12, beside the five, the price of long money

The test. Withdrawn if the ten-year US real rate averages above 5 percent over any twelve consecutive months ending on or before 31 December 2028, the top of the developed-country history the economists Trevor Chow, Basil Halperin and Zachary Mazlish assembled. A rise short of that, however large, leaves it held, and since a real rate moves for reasons other than AI, a crossing would show that the price moved, not why.

held Held: 2.44 percent on 31 August 2026 and 2.83 on 25 September 2026, both far under the 5 percent line.

From The AI Compute Race. Read the book

Falls due

31 December 2028

Read on

The inflation-indexed ten-year Treasury’s yield

Chapter

Chapter 12 — Cross-Examination

The book’s own thesis put on trial: five claims, each scored against the record and given a dated test that could prove it wrong.

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@misc{dryburgh-chapter-12-beside-the-five-the-price-of--2026,
  author = {Dryburgh, Lee S.},
  title = {{Chapter 12, beside the five, the price of long money}},
  howpublished = {In \emph{The AI Compute Race}, DRYBURGH},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://dryburgh.com/vol1/tests/2028-19},
  note = {Accessed 2026-11-01}
}