Chapter 12, claim 2, the forecast

The test. The claim names one constraint for each year: for 2027 permission (the permits and the consent that the 2026 record already shows binding), and for 2028 the bond market’s patience. If over a year the named constraint accounts for no delay on a dated public record while another constraint, turbines or memory for example, accounts for most of what was delayed, the claim’s mechanism survives and its forecast fails; one delayed delivery proves nothing either way.

held Held for 2026, on the record to October 2026. The constraint moved where the chapters had placed it, to memory and to permission (the queue and the permit), and the grid’s equipment still bound behind them.

From The AI Compute Race. Read the book

Falls due

31 December 2028

Read on

Dated public records of a delayed energization or delivery, and for the bond market’s patience, how many times over a builder’s bond sale is covered and the spread AI-related financings pay over their benchmark

Chapter

Chapter 12 — Cross-Examination

The book’s own thesis put on trial: five claims, each scored against the record and given a dated test that could prove it wrong.

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@misc{dryburgh-chapter-12-claim-2-the-forecast-2026,
  author = {Dryburgh, Lee S.},
  title = {{Chapter 12, claim 2, the forecast}},
  howpublished = {In \emph{The AI Compute Race}, DRYBURGH},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://dryburgh.com/vol1/tests/2028-14},
  note = {Accessed 2026-11-01}
}