Chapter 14, AI 2027, an outside forecast

The test. *AI 2027*’s compute model of April 2025 put global AI power at about 60 gigawatts by the end of 2027, the leading laboratory at about 10 gigawatts of peak power and 15 to 20 percent of the world’s AI compute, and a thousand-times-GPT-4 training run in 2027. Its four figures are read as three numbers. Hitting them would count as evidence for the capability and construction clocks moving upward together, though no row of the Scorecard reads them. Missing all three by half would falsify that forecast’s timetable. Missing by half, by this book’s arithmetic, means energized load under 30 gigawatts, a leading laboratory under 5 gigawatts and under 7.5 percent of the world’s AI compute, and no run of 500 times GPT-4’s training compute.

open Open.

From The AI Compute Race. Read the book

Falls due

31 December 2027

Read on

Energized load, the leading laboratory’s fleet, and Epoch’s largest run

Chapter

Chapter 14 — The Convergence

One campus, Meta’s Hyperion, run through four possible futures to show how science, power, money and permission meet in the price of an accelerator-hour.

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@misc{dryburgh-chapter-14-ai-2027-an-outside-forecast-2026,
  author = {Dryburgh, Lee S.},
  title = {{Chapter 14, AI 2027, an outside forecast}},
  howpublished = {In \emph{The AI Compute Race}, DRYBURGH},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://dryburgh.com/vol1/tests/2027-32},
  note = {Accessed 2026-11-01}
}