Chapter 5, NVIDIA’s place in the queue, read apart

The test. NVIDIA’s majority of the packaging queue weakens if CoWoS capacity reaches the 2027 estimate of about 170,000 wafers a month while NVIDIA’s share of it falls below half. The reading scores neither half, because a falling share would measure concentration among the buyers, not the island’s.

a mixed or partial reading NVIDIA held a rising majority of CoWoS capacity across 2024 and 2025, on Epoch AI’s model.

From The AI Compute Race. Read the book

Falls due

31 December 2027

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The trade press’s estimates or Epoch AI’s model

Chapter

Chapter 5 — The Island in Every Machine

Why every accelerator runs through Taiwan: the foundry, the packaging and the memory that are booked years ahead, and what that does to anyone arriving late with cash.

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@misc{dryburgh-chapter-5-nvidia-s-place-in-the-queue-re-2026,
  author = {Dryburgh, Lee S.},
  title = {{Chapter 5, NVIDIA's place in the queue, read apart}},
  howpublished = {In \emph{The AI Compute Race}, DRYBURGH},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://dryburgh.com/vol1/tests/2027-14},
  note = {Accessed 2026-11-01}
}