The length of task a model completes at a given reliability, counted in the time a skilled human would need, as METR measures it. The Scorecard reads it at 50 and 80 percent reliability. Chapter 3.
From The AI Compute Race. Read the book
Defined in Chapter 3 — The Missing Researcher.
Where the book uses it
- Chapter 3 — The Missing Researcher
The dated promise of an AI that does its own research, what the laboratories have published, and what the public record can and cannot yet check.
Where the record uses it
- Scorecard indicator Post-2024 METR horizon doubling time
Also discussed in
- Dated test Chapter 3, “attempt” and “leave with it”
Sources that use it
- METR, “Time horizons” dashboard (Time Horizon 1.1), last updated 8 May 2026 (Claude Mythos Preview: 17.41 hours at 50 percent, 3.10 hours at 80 percent; “Measurements above 16 hrs are unreliable with our current task suite”; the dashboard’s post-2023 doubling-time estimate 128.7 days; the 130.8-day figure is from METR’s Time Horizon 1.1 post of 29 January 2026; accessed 16 September 2026, still last updated 8 May 2026, with no entry for GPT-5.6 Sol or for GPT-6 Astra, released 3 September; the dashboard’s Updates block: “March 3rd, 2026: Corrected a regularization mistake that affected our measurements”; Opus 4.5 at about 293 minutes and no since-2024 doubling figure; of what a time horizon does not measure, “Most jobs are not composed of well-specified, algorithmic tasks. Instead, they tend to require interacting with other people and involve success metrics that cannot be algorithmically scored”; read again on 23 September 2026, the newest update still that of 8 May 2026; as served on 13 October 2026 the page says “This page is no longer actively updated.”, shows LAST UPDATED September 8, 2026, and its Updates block opens “September 8th, 2026: Clarified that this page is no longer actively updated.”, while its newest model entry is still “May 8th, 2026: Added Claude Mythos Preview (early)”; the copies the house took on 23 September and 4 October 2026 carry no such notice, so when it first appeared is not established; the page carried the notice “This page is no longer actively updated.” with its last update dated 8 September 2026, read on 29 October 2026). In the Sources
Related terms
From the glossary of The AI Compute Race.
How to cite this page
Dryburgh, Lee S. “Time horizon.” In The AI Compute Race. DRYBURGH. https://dryburgh.com/vol1/glossary/time-horizon (accessed 2026-11-01).
BibTeX
@misc{dryburgh-time-horizon-2026,
author = {Dryburgh, Lee S.},
title = {{Time horizon}},
howpublished = {In \emph{The AI Compute Race}, DRYBURGH},
year = {2026},
url = {https://dryburgh.com/vol1/glossary/time-horizon},
note = {Accessed 2026-11-01}
}