The AI Compute Race Glossary CDS

CDS

What does “CDS” mean?

CDS

Credit default swap. See credit protection.

From The AI Compute Race. Read the book

Where the record uses it

Sources that use it

  • Amanda Cooper, “Explainer: What are credit default swaps and why are they spooking AI investors?”, Reuters, 29 July 2026 (CDS, no tenor named: Oracle ~200 bp, Meta ~93, NVIDIA ~78, investment-grade index ~53; technology-linked CDS trading nearly $650 million in the second quarter of 2026, up 20 percent on the first; the 200 basis points above is in this explainer, and the $23.7 billion, the 174 per cent, the 47 per cent and the 40 basis points a year earlier are not). In the Sources
  • Caleb Mutua, “Morgan Stanley Warns Oracle Credit Protection Nearing Record High,” Bloomberg, 26 November 2025 (Morgan Stanley credit analysts Lindsay Tyler and David Hamburger: “Over the past two months, it has become more apparent that reported construction loans in the works, for sites where Oracle is the future tenant, may be an even greater driver of hedging of late and going forward”; “There is a risk that some hedges by banks could unwind if and when banks distribute these loans to other parties”; the five-year cost of insuring Oracle’s debt “rose to 1.25 percentage point a year on Tuesday, according to ICE Data Services”, 25 November 2025, a three-year high; “Oracle CDS hit a record 1.98 percentage point in 2008, ICE Data Services shows”; “a group of about 20 banks arranged a roughly $18 billion project finance loan to construct a data center campus in New Mexico, which Oracle will take over as tenant”; “a separate $38 billion loan package to help finance the construction of data centers in Texas and Wisconsin developed by Vantage Data Centers”; the analysts recommending the protection itself, in the report’s words “Now they’re saying it’s a cleaner trade to just buy the CDS outright”, and in theirs, “we are closing the ‘buy bond’ part of the basis trade, and keeping the ‘buy CDS protection’ leg of it”). In the Sources
  • George Steer, “Traders are increasingly betting against SpaceX just weeks after IPO,” Financial Times, 18 July 2026 (“SpaceX CDS are now trading at 158 basis points, Bloomberg data shows”, about $158,000 a year for five years to insure $10 million of the bonds, “up from $110,000 at the end of June”; the 30-year bond at “about 91 per cent of face value”; the shares closing at $123.99 on 17 July, below the $135 listing price for the first time; in the record) In the Sources
  • Michelle Chan and Ramsay Hodgson, “Big Tech credit risks rise sharply as AI spending soars,” Financial Times, 27 July 2026 (on LSEG data, credit default swaps tied to Oracle, SpaceX, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Broadcom and Nvidia “have risen to record highs in recent days”; Oracle, “whose five-year CDS was quoted at 215 basis points on Monday, up from 144bp at the start of the year”; Nvidia’s five-year protection “a record of 79bp”; Alphabet’s “a new high of 67bp on Monday”; on one person, NVIDIA “could back about $250bn” for a 10GW Ohio project, details not finalised; the Monday is 27 July 2026; read whole on a subscription on 11 October 2026). In the Sources
  • Michelle Chan, George Steer and Kate Duguid, “SpaceX credit risk jumps on worries over its borrowing spree,” Financial Times, 7 October 2026 (“pushing the yield over Treasuries on its 2056 bond up 0.09 percentage points on Wednesday to 2.36 percentage points, according to MarketAxess data”, from 1.75 in June; “The spread on SpaceX’s five-year credit default swaps rose to 194 basis points on Wednesday”, “a record high”, where “The CDS began trading in June at around 110bp”, no source named for the swaps; “The cost of Oracle’s five-year CDS has climbed 40bp since the start of last month to 244bp”, NVIDIA’s “about 81bp from 45bp in early July”; read whole on a subscription on 11 October 2026). In the Sources

And 2 more: search the Sources.

Related terms

From the glossary of The AI Compute Race.

How to cite this page

Dryburgh, Lee S. “CDS.” In The AI Compute Race. DRYBURGH. https://dryburgh.com/vol1/glossary/cds (accessed 2026-11-01).

BibTeX

@misc{dryburgh-cds-2026,
  author = {Dryburgh, Lee S.},
  title = {{CDS}},
  howpublished = {In \emph{The AI Compute Race}, DRYBURGH},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://dryburgh.com/vol1/glossary/cds},
  note = {Accessed 2026-11-01}
}

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