---
title: "Chapters 1 and 12, the wager, due 31 August 2028 · The AI Compute Race · DRYBURGH"
source: https://dryburgh.com/vol1/tests/2028-3
description: "Chapters 1 and 12, the wager: due 31 August 2028. Falsified if both of two things hold."
---

# Chapters 1 and 12, the wager

Due 31 August 2028

**The test.** Falsified if both of two things hold. Rivals are still reproducing each advance within fourteen months, the top of the historical four-to-fourteen-month envelope, so that a faster catch-up counts too. The public record still shows the leader’s generation time, the time one generation of models takes to produce the next, at months rather than weeks, which chapters 1 and 12 read as more than eight weeks between successive frontier releases. The lag alone undermines the second route, and the generation time alone falsifies nothing.

a mixed or partial reading Not established. The lag is inside fourteen months and the generation time is months rather than weeks, so both conditions hold on the record so far, and the test is read on 31 August 2028; no regime change, a lead widening rather than turning over, has been observed. The book does not assert the wager, as the preamble says, and keeps the test because the buildout is priced as if it were true.

From *The AI Compute Race*. [Read the book](https://dryburgh.com/vol1#buy)

**Falls due:** 31 August 2028

**Read on:** The lag on Epoch AI’s count of the China lag, as the Scorecard’s China-lag row reads it, and the generation time on the interval between successive frontier models from the leading laboratory, by the release dates Epoch AI’s capability index lists

## What it names

- Campus [Stargate Shackelford / Frontier](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/ledger/stargate-shackelford-frontier)

[Add this test to your calendar](webcal://dryburgh.com/vol1/data/tests.ics?test=2028-3) · Download this test: [CSV](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/data/test-2028-3.csv) · [JSON](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/data/test-2028-3.json)

- [Campuses](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/ledger)
- [Scorecard](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/scorecard)
- [Data](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/data/releases)
- [Chapter by chapter](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/companion)
- [The record at a glance](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/observatory)
- [The machine](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/machine)
- [One campus, four futures](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/hyperion)
- [Glossary](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/glossary)
- [People](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/people)
- [Sources](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/sources)
- [Notes](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/notes)
- [Where the book was wrong](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/corrections)
- [Where its sources were wrong](https://dryburgh.com/corrections?book=vol1)
- [The Paper](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/paper)
- [Consent](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/consent)
- [Who builds and pays](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/parties)

*The AI Compute Race: Five Races, One Machine* is a book by Lee S. Dryburgh, the first volume of THE COMPUTE ECONOMY, published by Dryburgh, an imprint of Contestra OÜ, Tallinn, Estonia; its record closes on 8 November 2026.

[About the book](https://dryburgh.com/vol1)[Tell me when it is out](https://dryburgh.com/vol1#notify)