---
title: "Chapters 1 and 12, the second route, due 31 August 2028 · The AI Compute Race · DRYBURGH"
source: https://dryburgh.com/vol1/tests/2028-2
description: "Chapters 1 and 12, the second route: due 31 August 2028."
---

# Chapters 1 and 12, the second route

Due 31 August 2028

**The test.** Supported if the leading American-controlled system, or the allied stack behind it, sustains a lead of more than fourteen months over the strongest Chinese system with the gap widening, both at once. Undermined if the lag is fourteen months or less. The lag is a proxy for the machine, not a measure of it. It stands in because the lead the wager needs is a lead in what the models can do, and a superior machine serves the wager only if it yields one.

a mixed or partial reading Leaning to undermined: China’s frontier has trailed America’s by seven months on average since 2023, on Epoch’s count of January 2026, in a range of four to fourteen.

From *The AI Compute Race*. [Read the book](https://dryburgh.com/vol1#buy)

**Falls due:** 31 August 2028

**Read on:** The Scorecard’s China-lag thresholds, on Epoch AI’s count

## What it names

- Campus [Stargate Shackelford / Frontier](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/ledger/stargate-shackelford-frontier)

[Add this test to your calendar](webcal://dryburgh.com/vol1/data/tests.ics?test=2028-2) · Download this test: [CSV](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/data/test-2028-2.csv) · [JSON](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/data/test-2028-2.json)

- [Campuses](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/ledger)
- [Scorecard](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/scorecard)
- [Data](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/data/releases)
- [Chapter by chapter](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/companion)
- [The record at a glance](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/observatory)
- [The machine](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/machine)
- [One campus, four futures](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/hyperion)
- [Glossary](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/glossary)
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- [Sources](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/sources)
- [Notes](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/notes)
- [Where the book was wrong](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/corrections)
- [Where its sources were wrong](https://dryburgh.com/corrections?book=vol1)
- [The Paper](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/paper)
- [Consent](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/consent)
- [Who builds and pays](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/parties)

*The AI Compute Race: Five Races, One Machine* is a book by Lee S. Dryburgh, the first volume of THE COMPUTE ECONOMY, published by Dryburgh, an imprint of Contestra OÜ, Tallinn, Estonia; its record closes on 8 November 2026.

[About the book](https://dryburgh.com/vol1)[Tell me when it is out](https://dryburgh.com/vol1#notify)