---
title: "Chapter 12, claim 2, the forecast, due 31 December 2028 · The AI Compute Race · DRYBURGH"
source: https://dryburgh.com/vol1/tests/2028-14
description: "Chapter 12, claim 2, the forecast: due 31 December 2028."
---

# Chapter 12, claim 2, the forecast

Due 31 December 2028

**The test.** The claim names one constraint for each year: for 2027 permission (the permits and the consent that the 2026 record already shows binding), and for 2028 the bond market’s patience. If over a year the named constraint accounts for no delay on a dated public record while another constraint, turbines or memory for example, accounts for most of what was delayed, the claim’s mechanism survives and its forecast fails; one delayed delivery proves nothing either way.

held Held for 2026, on the record to October 2026. The constraint moved where the chapters had placed it, to memory and to permission (the queue and the permit), and the grid’s equipment still bound behind them.

From *The AI Compute Race*. [Read the book](https://dryburgh.com/vol1#buy)

**Falls due:** 31 December 2028

**Read on:** Dated public records of a delayed energization or delivery, and for the bond market’s patience, how many times over a builder’s bond sale is covered and the spread AI-related financings pay over their benchmark

**Chapter:** [Chapter 12 — Cross-Examination](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/notes/chapter-12)The book’s own thesis put on trial: five claims, each scored against the record and given a dated test that could prove it wrong.

[Add this test to your calendar](webcal://dryburgh.com/vol1/data/tests.ics?test=2028-14) · Download this test: [CSV](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/data/test-2028-14.csv) · [JSON](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/data/test-2028-14.json)

- [Campuses](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/ledger)
- [Scorecard](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/scorecard)
- [Data](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/data/releases)
- [Chapter by chapter](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/companion)
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- [The machine](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/machine)
- [One campus, four futures](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/hyperion)
- [Glossary](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/glossary)
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- [Sources](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/sources)
- [Notes](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/notes)
- [Where the book was wrong](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/corrections)
- [Where its sources were wrong](https://dryburgh.com/corrections?book=vol1)
- [The Paper](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/paper)
- [Consent](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/consent)
- [Who builds and pays](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/parties)

*The AI Compute Race: Five Races, One Machine* is a book by Lee S. Dryburgh, the first volume of THE COMPUTE ECONOMY, published by Dryburgh, an imprint of Contestra OÜ, Tallinn, Estonia; its record closes on 8 November 2026.

[About the book](https://dryburgh.com/vol1)[Tell me when it is out](https://dryburgh.com/vol1#notify)