---
title: "Chapter 11, OpenAI’s 2026, due 31 August 2027 · The AI Compute Race · DRYBURGH"
source: https://dryburgh.com/vol1/tests/2027-7
description: "Chapter 11, OpenAI's 2026: due 31 August 2027."
---

# Chapter 11, OpenAI’s 2026

Due 31 August 2027

**The test.** The claim fails for OpenAI’s 2026 if OpenAI’s reported revenue for 2026 reaches the $30 billion of its own forecast. The test keeps that forecast, though a later OpenAI presentation, which the Financial Times reported on 18 September 2026, put 2026 revenue at $36 billion, a figure that would also fire it; a later report, the Financial Times of 9 October 2026, put the company’s own forecast revised to $35 billion from $30 billion.

on course On course to fire. OpenAI’s reported revenue for the first half of 2026 was $12.4 billion, by this book’s sum of its two quarters, so $30 billion for the year needs about $17.6 billion in the second half, an annual rate of about $35 billion. On the run rates reported since, the pace the second half needs is below the pace the company reports: close to $30 billion in July and approaching $50 billion by the end of September, on the company’s presentation to investors as the Financial Times reported it on 8 October 2026. The claim is held in October 2026.

From *The AI Compute Race*. [Read the book](https://dryburgh.com/vol1#buy)

**Falls due:** 31 August 2027

**Read on:** OpenAI’s reported revenue

**Chapter:** [Chapter 11 — What the Machine Has to Earn](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/notes/chapter-11)The revenue the buildout needs against the revenue it has, on whose clock the gap must close, and the two ceilings on what AI can earn.

## What it names

- Party [OpenAI](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/parties/openai)

[Add this test to your calendar](webcal://dryburgh.com/vol1/data/tests.ics?test=2027-7) · Download this test: [CSV](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/data/test-2027-7.csv) · [JSON](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/data/test-2027-7.json)

## Related in the record

- Dated test [Chapter 12, claim 5, the paper that rests on OpenAI’s contracts, due 31 August 2027](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/tests/2027-8)
- Dated test [Chapter 12, claim 5, the paper that rests on OpenAI’s contracts, due 31 August 2028](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/tests/2028-7)

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*The AI Compute Race: Five Races, One Machine* is a book by Lee S. Dryburgh, the first volume of THE COMPUTE ECONOMY, published by Dryburgh, an imprint of Contestra OÜ, Tallinn, Estonia; its record closes on 8 November 2026.

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