---
title: "Chapter 14, AI 2027, an outside forecast, due 31 December 2027 · The AI Compute Race · DRYBURGH"
source: https://dryburgh.com/vol1/tests/2027-32
description: "Chapter 14, AI 2027, an outside forecast: due 31 December 2027."
---

# Chapter 14, AI 2027, an outside forecast

Due 31 December 2027

**The test.** *AI 2027*’s compute model of April 2025 put global AI power at about 60 gigawatts by the end of 2027, the leading laboratory at about 10 gigawatts of peak power and 15 to 20 percent of the world’s AI compute, and a thousand-times-GPT-4 training run in 2027. Its four figures are read as three numbers. Hitting them would count as evidence for the capability and construction clocks moving upward together, though no row of the Scorecard reads them. Missing all three by half would falsify that forecast’s timetable. Missing by half, by this book’s arithmetic, means energized load under 30 gigawatts, a leading laboratory under 5 gigawatts and under 7.5 percent of the world’s AI compute, and no run of 500 times GPT-4’s training compute.

open Open.

From *The AI Compute Race*. [Read the book](https://dryburgh.com/vol1#buy)

**Falls due:** 31 December 2027

**Read on:** Energized load, the leading laboratory’s fleet, and Epoch’s largest run

**Chapter:** [Chapter 14 — The Convergence](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/notes/chapter-14)One campus, Meta’s Hyperion, run through four possible futures to show how science, power, money and permission meet in the price of an accelerator-hour.

[Add this test to your calendar](webcal://dryburgh.com/vol1/data/tests.ics?test=2027-32) · Download this test: [CSV](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/data/test-2027-32.csv) · [JSON](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/data/test-2027-32.json)

## Related in the record

- Person [Kokotajlo, Daniel](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/people#kokotajlo-daniel)

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*The AI Compute Race: Five Races, One Machine* is a book by Lee S. Dryburgh, the first volume of THE COMPUTE ECONOMY, published by Dryburgh, an imprint of Contestra OÜ, Tallinn, Estonia; its record closes on 8 November 2026.

[About the book](https://dryburgh.com/vol1)[Tell me when it is out](https://dryburgh.com/vol1#notify)