---
title: "Chapter 7, the harder to reverse, Beijing’s side, due 31 December 2027 · The AI Compute Race · DRYBURGH"
source: https://dryburgh.com/vol1/tests/2027-17
description: "Chapter 7, the harder to reverse, Beijing's side: due 31 December 2027."
---

# Chapter 7, the harder to reverse, Beijing’s side

Due 31 December 2027

**The test.** Beijing’s guidance lifting, with mainland deliveries of licensed H200s or their successors in the calendar year to 31 December 2027 exceeding half of what Washington has licensed to Chinese buyers by that day, withdraws the claim. Both are needed to withdraw it, and either alone weakens it. The threshold is set against what Washington has licensed, so that Washington’s own ceiling cannot be what keeps it from being met.

held Held so far. By August about 10,000 licensed chips each had reached ByteDance and Tencent against the 100,000 each Washington had cleared, a tenth, under the half the test asks for; NVIDIA said the shipments that had reached China were under one percent of its datacenter revenue in the quarter then reported.

From *The AI Compute Race*. [Read the book](https://dryburgh.com/vol1#buy)

**Falls due:** 31 December 2027

**Read on:** NVIDIA’s filings or the press reports the chapter reads

**Chapter:** [Chapter 7 — The Double Blockade](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/notes/chapter-7)Two governments deciding one trade: Washington’s export rules and Beijing’s instructions at the border, and what each did to the chip business it meant to shape.

## What it names

- Party [ByteDance](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/parties/bytedance)
- Party [NVIDIA](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/parties/nvidia)

## Filings that bear on it

- [NVIDIA Corporation, Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 25 January 2026, filed 25 February 2026](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/filings/nvda-10k-fy26)NVIDIA’s annual report for fiscal 2026 shows a $4.5 billion charge on the H20 after its China exports came to need licenses, about $60 million of licensed H20 revenue, and none yet from a February 2026 H200 license.

[Add this test to your calendar](webcal://dryburgh.com/vol1/data/tests.ics?test=2027-17) · Download this test: [CSV](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/data/test-2027-17.csv) · [JSON](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/data/test-2027-17.json)

## Related in the record

- Chapter notes [Chapter 7 — The Double Blockade](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/notes/chapter-7)

- [Campuses](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/ledger)
- [Scorecard](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/scorecard)
- [Data](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/data/releases)
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- [Where the book was wrong](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/corrections)
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- [The Paper](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/paper)
- [Consent](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/consent)
- [Who builds and pays](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/parties)

*The AI Compute Race: Five Races, One Machine* is a book by Lee S. Dryburgh, the first volume of THE COMPUTE ECONOMY, published by Dryburgh, an imprint of Contestra OÜ, Tallinn, Estonia; its record closes on 8 November 2026.

[About the book](https://dryburgh.com/vol1)[Tell me when it is out](https://dryburgh.com/vol1#notify)