---
title: "Chapter 2, the ladder of cost, due 31 December 2027 · The AI Compute Race · DRYBURGH"
source: https://dryburgh.com/vol1/tests/2027-11
description: "Chapter 2, the ladder of cost: due 31 December 2027."
---

# Chapter 2, the ladder of cost

Due 31 December 2027

**The test.** Falsified if no training run exceeds $1 billion by 31 December 2027, on Epoch AI’s reconstruction or a laboratory’s own disclosure.

open Open in October 2026; the largest reconstructed run is about $490 million.

From *The AI Compute Race*. [Read the book](https://dryburgh.com/vol1#buy)

**Falls due:** 31 December 2027

**Read on:** Epoch AI’s reconstructions of training cost, and the laboratories’ own disclosures

**Chapter:** [Chapter 2 — The Discovery That Changed Everything](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/notes/chapter-2)How a formula about compute and capability became a bill: the scaling laws, the first supercomputers built to test them, and why the money came before the paper.

[Add this test to your calendar](webcal://dryburgh.com/vol1/data/tests.ics?test=2027-11) · Download this test: [CSV](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/data/test-2027-11.csv) · [JSON](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/data/test-2027-11.json)

- [Campuses](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/ledger)
- [Scorecard](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/scorecard)
- [Data](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/data/releases)
- [Chapter by chapter](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/companion)
- [The record at a glance](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/observatory)
- [The machine](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/machine)
- [One campus, four futures](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/hyperion)
- [Glossary](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/glossary)
- [People](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/people)
- [Sources](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/sources)
- [Notes](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/notes)
- [Where the book was wrong](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/corrections)
- [Where its sources were wrong](https://dryburgh.com/corrections?book=vol1)
- [The Paper](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/paper)
- [Consent](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/consent)
- [Who builds and pays](https://dryburgh.com/vol1/parties)

*The AI Compute Race: Five Races, One Machine* is a book by Lee S. Dryburgh, the first volume of THE COMPUTE ECONOMY, published by Dryburgh, an imprint of Contestra OÜ, Tallinn, Estonia; its record closes on 8 November 2026.

[About the book](https://dryburgh.com/vol1)[Tell me when it is out](https://dryburgh.com/vol1#notify)